The dangers of strictly following mental shortcuts in the world of No-Limit Holdem.

Everyone has mental shortcuts, from remembering phone numbers to multiplying two numbers together to approximating tail-risk in derivatives trades. All is fine and dandy until your shortcut fails. The interesting questions here, already answered somewhat by the emerging field of cognitive psychology, are why we have these shortcuts and how some people have a strange ability to correctly approximate small probability but high-impact events. In the world of professional no-limit holdem, tail-risk is abound and shortcuts are many. Here is a common one:

One of my better posts as a poker player. Mental shortcuts fail when the model breaks down.
Written on November 26, 2014